AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns

ATLATLAtlanta FalconsCLECLECleveland Browns

Matchup first read

ATL pass defense has the stronger league profile.

CLE passing attack #22/32 · ATL pass defense #15/32 · 178 offense / 222 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -0.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (CLE margin)
-15.6 to +18.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CLE passing attack#22/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • CLE run game#17/32ATL run defense#13/32
  • ATL passing attack#9/32CLE pass defense#9/32
  • ATL run game#9/32CLE run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

CLECleveland Browns