2026 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 · 8:20 PM ET
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
Matchup first read
BUF run game has the stronger league profile.
BUF run game #1/32 · GB run defense #24/32 · 148 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BUF -2
- Model total
- 52
- 80% range (GB margin)
- -16.9 to +17.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- GB passing attack#7/32BUF pass defense#29/32
- GB run game#31/32BUF run defense#19/32
- BUF passing attack#5/32GB pass defense#6/32
- BUF run game#1/32GB run defense#24/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 6 games251pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 6 games105rush yds/g
- Dalton KincaidTE · 6 games52.5rec yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 6 games48.3rec yds/g
GBGreen Bay Packers
- Jordan LoveQB · 7 games280pass yds/g
- Kaleb JohnsonRB · 5 games20.8rush yds/g
- Christian WatsonWR · 7 games85rec yds/g
- Matthew GoldenWR · 7 games77.1rec yds/g