AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins

CHICHIChicago BearsMIAMIAMiami Dolphins

Matchup first read

CHI passing attack has the stronger league profile.

CHI passing attack #13/32 · MIA pass defense #32/32 · 189 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -7.5
Model total
44
80% range (MIA margin)
-22.3 to +11.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#26/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • MIA run game#6/32CHI run defense#22/32
  • CHI passing attack#13/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • CHI run game#20/32MIA run defense#10/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

MIAMiami Dolphins