2026 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 10 · 8:15 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
Matchup first read
NE run defense has the stronger league profile.
MIN run game #27/32 · NE run defense #18/32 · 139 offense / 123 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIN -5
- Model total
- 37.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -19.7 to +14.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#2/32MIN pass defense#1/32
- NE run game#19/32MIN run defense#15/32
- MIN passing attack#27/32NE pass defense#26/32
- MIN run game#27/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MINMinnesota Vikings
- Kyler MurrayQB · 5 games162pass yds/g
- Aaron JonesRB · 6 games72.7rush yds/g
- Justin JeffersonWR · 5 games60.4rec yds/g
- T.J. HockensonTE · 6 games39.5rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g