AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13 · 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens

TBTBTampa Bay BuccaneersBALBALBaltimore Ravens

Matchup first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

BAL run game #24/32 · TB run defense #17/32 · 151 offense / 97 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -1
Model total
45.5
80% range (BAL margin)
-15.8 to +18.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BAL passing attack#8/32TB pass defense#2/32
  • BAL run game#24/32TB run defense#17/32
  • TB passing attack#29/32BAL pass defense#23/32
  • TB run game#8/32BAL run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

BALBaltimore Ravens