AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

ATLATLAtlanta FalconsWASWASWashington Commanders

Matchup first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #9/32 · WAS run defense #29/32 · 136 offense / 123 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -2.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (WAS margin)
-17.4 to +16.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • WAS passing attack#20/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • WAS run game#16/32ATL run defense#13/32
  • ATL passing attack#9/32WAS pass defense#19/32
  • ATL run game#9/32WAS run defense#29/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

WASWashington Commanders