AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

BALBALBaltimore RavensPITPITPittsburgh Steelers

Matchup first read

PIT run defense has the stronger league profile.

BAL run game #24/32 · PIT run defense #7/32 · 151 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BAL -0.5
Model total
44.5
80% range (PIT margin)
-15.5 to +18.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#19/32BAL pass defense#23/32
  • PIT run game#2/32BAL run defense#3/32
  • BAL passing attack#8/32PIT pass defense#17/32
  • BAL run game#24/32PIT run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BALBaltimore Ravens

PITPittsburgh Steelers