AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 19 · 8:20 PM ET

Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills

CHICHIChicago BearsBUFBUFBuffalo Bills

Matchup first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #1/32 · CHI run defense #22/32 · 148 offense / 86 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -0.5
Model total
52.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-15.4 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • BUF run game#1/32CHI run defense#22/32
  • CHI passing attack#13/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • CHI run game#20/32BUF run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

BUFBuffalo Bills