AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20 · 8:20 PM ET

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

DETDETDetroit LionsMINMINMinnesota Vikings

Matchup first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

DET run game #23/32 · MIN run defense #15/32 · 127 offense / 120 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -4.5
Model total
42
80% range (MIN margin)
-10.7 to +23.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#27/32DET pass defense#31/32
  • MIN run game#27/32DET run defense#25/32
  • DET passing attack#1/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • DET run game#23/32MIN run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DETDetroit Lions

MINMinnesota Vikings