AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

JAXJAXJacksonville JaguarsHOUHOUHouston Texans

Matchup first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #22/32 · JAX run defense #1/32 · 115 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -6
Model total
46
80% range (HOU margin)
-21.1 to +12.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#4/32JAX pass defense#18/32
  • HOU run game#22/32JAX run defense#1/32
  • JAX passing attack#6/32HOU pass defense#14/32
  • JAX run game#11/32HOU run defense#27/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

HOUHouston Texans