2026 Week 15 · Mon, Dec 21 · 8:15 PM ET
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup first read
KC passing attack has the stronger league profile.
KC passing attack #11/32 · NE pass defense #26/32 · 170 offense / 172 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -2
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -13.1 to +20.9
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#11/32NE pass defense#26/32
- KC run game#7/32NE run defense#18/32
- NE passing attack#2/32KC pass defense#16/32
- NE run game#19/32KC run defense#8/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 6 games246pass yds/g
- Kenneth Walker IIIRB · 6 games117rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games63.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 6 games57.2rec yds/g