2026 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20 · 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup first read
TB run game has the stronger league profile.
TB run game #8/32 · NO run defense #32/32 · 161 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -3
- Model total
- 46
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -12.0 to +22.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32NO pass defense#22/32
- TB run game#8/32NO run defense#32/32
- NO passing attack#25/32TB pass defense#2/32
- NO run game#25/32TB run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NONew Orleans Saints
- Tyler ShoughQB · 7 games246pass yds/g
- Travis EtienneRB · 3 games42.7rush yds/g
- Chris OlaveWR · 7 games90.9rec yds/g
- Devaughn VeleWR · 7 games49.7rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 4 games170pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games79.7rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 6 games40rec yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games34.7rec yds/g