2026 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 17 · 8:15 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup first read
SF run defense has the stronger league profile.
LAC run game #28/32 · SF run defense #2/32 · 148 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- SF -7
- Model total
- 41.5
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -22.0 to +12.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#32/32SF pass defense#20/32
- LAC run game#28/32SF run defense#2/32
- SF passing attack#10/32LAC pass defense#10/32
- SF run game#3/32LAC run defense#4/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 7 games250pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 7 games55.6rush yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 6 games70rec yds/g
- George KittleTE · 7 games60.7rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 6 games190pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 6 games48.2rush yds/g
- Tre HarrisWR · 5 games45rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 5 games40rec yds/g