AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Fri, Dec 25 · 4:30 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

BUFBUFBuffalo BillsDENDENDenver Broncos

Matchup first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #1/32 · DEN run defense #11/32 · 148 offense / 140 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -1.5
Model total
49
80% range (DEN margin)
-16.6 to +17.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#21/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • DEN run game#14/32BUF run defense#19/32
  • BUF passing attack#5/32DEN pass defense#5/32
  • BUF run game#1/32DEN run defense#11/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

DENDenver Broncos