AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

CARCARCarolina PanthersPITPITPittsburgh Steelers

Matchup first read

PIT run game has the stronger league profile.

PIT run game #2/32 · CAR run defense #20/32 · 110 offense / 135 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PK
Model total
46.5
80% range (PIT margin)
-14.8 to +19.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#19/32CAR pass defense#8/32
  • PIT run game#2/32CAR run defense#20/32
  • CAR passing attack#17/32PIT pass defense#17/32
  • CAR run game#12/32PIT run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CARCarolina Panthers

PITPittsburgh Steelers