AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

CINCINCincinnati BengalsINDINDIndianapolis Colts

Matchup first read

CIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

IND passing attack #28/32 · CIN pass defense #13/32 · 194 offense / 189 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CIN -6
Model total
48.5
80% range (IND margin)
-20.9 to +13.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#28/32CIN pass defense#13/32
  • IND run game#10/32CIN run defense#16/32
  • CIN passing attack#3/32IND pass defense#7/32
  • CIN run game#21/32IND run defense#12/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CINCincinnati Bengals

INDIndianapolis Colts