AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Fri, Dec 25 · 1:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

GBGBGreen Bay PackersCHICHIChicago Bears

Matchup first read

CHI run defense has the stronger league profile.

GB run game #31/32 · CHI run defense #22/32 · 98 offense / 86 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -2.5
Model total
44
80% range (CHI margin)
-12.5 to +21.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#13/32GB pass defense#6/32
  • CHI run game#20/32GB run defense#24/32
  • GB passing attack#7/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • GB run game#31/32CHI run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

GBGreen Bay Packers

CHIChicago Bears