AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Thu, Dec 24 · 8:15 PM ET

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles

HOUHOUHouston TexansPHIPHIPhiladelphia Eagles

Matchup first read

HOU passing attack has the stronger league profile.

HOU passing attack #4/32 · PHI pass defense #25/32 · 161 offense / 196 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -2
Model total
45
80% range (PHI margin)
-17.1 to +16.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PHI passing attack#31/32HOU pass defense#14/32
  • PHI run game#26/32HOU run defense#27/32
  • HOU passing attack#4/32PHI pass defense#25/32
  • HOU run game#22/32PHI run defense#30/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

PHIPhiladelphia Eagles