AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 8:20 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

JAXJAXJacksonville JaguarsDALDALDallas Cowboys

Matchup first read

JAX passing attack has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #6/32 · DAL pass defense #27/32 · 170 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -5.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (DAL margin)
-20.5 to +13.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DAL passing attack#14/32JAX pass defense#18/32
  • DAL run game#5/32JAX run defense#1/32
  • JAX passing attack#6/32DAL pass defense#27/32
  • JAX run game#11/32DAL run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

DALDallas Cowboys