AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

LACLACLos Angeles ChargersMIAMIAMiami Dolphins

Matchup first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

LAC run game #28/32 · MIA run defense #10/32 · 148 offense / 127 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -0.5
Model total
39
80% range (MIA margin)
-14.6 to +19.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#26/32LAC pass defense#10/32
  • MIA run game#6/32LAC run defense#4/32
  • LAC passing attack#32/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • LAC run game#28/32MIA run defense#10/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

MIAMiami Dolphins