2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Matchup first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #2/32 · NYJ pass defense #24/32 · 172 offense / 165 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -2.5
- Model total
- 42
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -17.5 to +16.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#16/32NE pass defense#26/32
- NYJ run game#18/32NE run defense#18/32
- NE passing attack#2/32NYJ pass defense#24/32
- NE run game#19/32NYJ run defense#14/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Geno SmithQB · 7 games232pass yds/g
- Braelon AllenRB · 7 games59.7rush yds/g
- Omar Cooper Jr.WR · 3 games82.7rec yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games63.4rec yds/g