2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup first read
KC passing attack has the stronger league profile.
KC passing attack #11/32 · SF pass defense #20/32 · 170 offense / 204 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -0.5
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -14.4 to +19.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#11/32SF pass defense#20/32
- KC run game#7/32SF run defense#2/32
- SF passing attack#10/32KC pass defense#16/32
- SF run game#3/32KC run defense#8/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 7 games250pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 7 games55.6rush yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 6 games70rec yds/g
- George KittleTE · 7 games60.7rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 6 games246pass yds/g
- Kenneth Walker IIIRB · 6 games117rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games63.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 6 games57.2rec yds/g