AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

TBTBTampa Bay BuccaneersATLATLAtlanta Falcons

Matchup first read

ATL pass defense has the stronger league profile.

TB passing attack #29/32 · ATL pass defense #15/32 · 158 offense / 222 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -1
Model total
45
80% range (ATL margin)
-15.8 to +18.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#9/32TB pass defense#2/32
  • ATL run game#9/32TB run defense#17/32
  • TB passing attack#29/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • TB run game#8/32ATL run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

ATLAtlanta Falcons