AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 16 · Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings

WASWASWashington CommandersMINMINMinnesota Vikings

Matchup first read

MIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

WAS passing attack #20/32 · MIN pass defense #1/32 · 180 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -7.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (MIN margin)
-7.6 to +26.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#27/32WAS pass defense#19/32
  • MIN run game#27/32WAS run defense#29/32
  • WAS passing attack#20/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • WAS run game#16/32MIN run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

MINMinnesota Vikings