2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Matchup first read
DEN run defense has the stronger league profile.
NE run game #19/32 · DEN run defense #11/32 · 139 offense / 140 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- PK
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -14.9 to +19.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#2/32DEN pass defense#5/32
- NE run game#19/32DEN run defense#11/32
- DEN passing attack#21/32NE pass defense#26/32
- DEN run game#14/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DENDenver Broncos
- Bo NixQB · 7 games182pass yds/g
- Jonah ColemanRB · 2 games46.5rush yds/g
- Jaylen WaddleWR · 7 games39.4rec yds/g
- Pat BryantWR · 4 games33.3rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g