AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 4:25 PM ET

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

DETDETDetroit LionsCHICHIChicago Bears

Matchup first read

CHI passing attack has the stronger league profile.

CHI passing attack #13/32 · DET pass defense #31/32 · 189 offense / 219 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -1.5
Model total
48.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-13.4 to +20.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#13/32DET pass defense#31/32
  • CHI run game#20/32DET run defense#25/32
  • DET passing attack#1/32CHI pass defense#11/32
  • DET run game#23/32CHI run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DETDetroit Lions

CHIChicago Bears