2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup first read
KC run defense has the stronger league profile.
LAC run game #28/32 · KC run defense #8/32 · 148 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -7.5
- Model total
- 36.5
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -22.5 to +11.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#32/32KC pass defense#16/32
- LAC run game#28/32KC run defense#8/32
- KC passing attack#11/32LAC pass defense#10/32
- KC run game#7/32LAC run defense#4/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 6 games246pass yds/g
- Kenneth Walker IIIRB · 6 games117rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games63.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 6 games57.2rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 6 games190pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 6 games48.2rush yds/g
- Tre HarrisWR · 5 games45rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 5 games40rec yds/g