2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup first read
LA pass defense has the stronger league profile.
TB passing attack #29/32 · LA pass defense #12/32 · 158 offense / 173 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -0.5
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -14.6 to +19.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32LA pass defense#12/32
- TB run game#8/32LA run defense#9/32
- LA passing attack#15/32TB pass defense#2/32
- LA run game#4/32TB run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LALos Angeles Rams
- Matthew StaffordQB · 7 games284pass yds/g
- Kyren WilliamsRB · 7 games70.3rush yds/g
- Puka NacuaWR · 5 games97rec yds/g
- Davante AdamsWR · 6 games80rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 4 games170pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games79.7rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 6 games40rec yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games34.7rec yds/g