2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
Matchup first read
MIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ passing attack #16/32 · MIN pass defense #1/32 · 162 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIN -7.5
- Model total
- 36.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -22.3 to +11.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#16/32MIN pass defense#1/32
- NYJ run game#18/32MIN run defense#15/32
- MIN passing attack#27/32NYJ pass defense#24/32
- MIN run game#27/32NYJ run defense#14/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MINMinnesota Vikings
- Kyler MurrayQB · 5 games162pass yds/g
- Aaron JonesRB · 6 games72.7rush yds/g
- Justin JeffersonWR · 5 games60.4rec yds/g
- T.J. HockensonTE · 6 games39.5rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Geno SmithQB · 7 games232pass yds/g
- Braelon AllenRB · 7 games59.7rush yds/g
- Omar Cooper Jr.WR · 3 games82.7rec yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 7 games63.4rec yds/g