AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

NONONew Orleans SaintsATLATLAtlanta Falcons

Matchup first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #9/32 · NO run defense #32/32 · 136 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -2
Model total
48.5
80% range (ATL margin)
-12.8 to +21.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#9/32NO pass defense#22/32
  • ATL run game#9/32NO run defense#32/32
  • NO passing attack#25/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • NO run game#25/32ATL run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

ATLAtlanta Falcons