2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 8:20 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
Matchup first read
SF run game has the stronger league profile.
SF run game #3/32 · PHI run defense #30/32 · 129 offense / 154 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- SF -4.5
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (SF margin)
- -10.3 to +23.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- SF passing attack#10/32PHI pass defense#25/32
- SF run game#3/32PHI run defense#30/32
- PHI passing attack#31/32SF pass defense#20/32
- PHI run game#26/32SF run defense#2/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
- Tanner McKeeQB · 2 games213pass yds/g
- Saquon BarkleyRB · 5 games48.8rush yds/g
- DeVonta SmithWR · 4 games77.5rec yds/g
- Dontayvion WicksWR · 6 games47.3rec yds/g
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 7 games250pass yds/g
- Christian McCaffreyRB · 7 games55.6rush yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 6 games70rec yds/g
- George KittleTE · 7 games60.7rec yds/g