AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 17 · Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars

WASWASWashington CommandersJAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars

Matchup first read

JAX run game has the stronger league profile.

JAX run game #11/32 · WAS run defense #29/32 · 132 offense / 123 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -7.5
Model total
47
80% range (JAX margin)
-7.4 to +26.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#6/32WAS pass defense#19/32
  • JAX run game#11/32WAS run defense#29/32
  • WAS passing attack#20/32JAX pass defense#18/32
  • WAS run game#16/32JAX run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

JAXJacksonville Jaguars