AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

ATLATLAtlanta FalconsCARCARCarolina Panthers

Matchup first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #9/32 · CAR run defense #20/32 · 136 offense / 135 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -1
Model total
50
80% range (CAR margin)
-15.7 to +18.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CAR passing attack#17/32ATL pass defense#15/32
  • CAR run game#12/32ATL run defense#13/32
  • ATL passing attack#9/32CAR pass defense#8/32
  • ATL run game#9/32CAR run defense#20/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

CARCarolina Panthers