2026 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup first read
KC run game has the stronger league profile.
KC run game #7/32 · LV run defense #31/32 · 120 offense / 142 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -2.5
- Model total
- 44.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -12.3 to +21.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#11/32LV pass defense#28/32
- KC run game#7/32LV run defense#31/32
- LV passing attack#12/32KC pass defense#16/32
- LV run game#32/32KC run defense#8/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Kirk CousinsQB · 7 games268pass yds/g
- Ashton JeantyRB · 7 games46.9rush yds/g
- Brock BowersTE · 5 games91rec yds/g
- Tre TuckerWR · 7 games67.7rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 6 games246pass yds/g
- Kenneth Walker IIIRB · 6 games117rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games63.3rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 6 games57.2rec yds/g