2026 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Matchup first read
NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.
NE passing attack #2/32 · MIA pass defense #32/32 · 172 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -5.5
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -9.6 to +24.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#2/32MIA pass defense#32/32
- NE run game#19/32MIA run defense#10/32
- MIA passing attack#26/32NE pass defense#26/32
- MIA run game#6/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
- Malik WillisQB · 6 games176pass yds/g
- Ollie Gordon IIRB · 5 games67.8rush yds/g
- Caleb DouglasWR · 3 games61rec yds/g
- Malik WashingtonWR · 6 games48.2rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 7 games255pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 7 games40.7rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 6 games43.5rec yds/g