AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 18 · Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

NYJNYJNew York JetsBUFBUFBuffalo Bills

Matchup first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #5/32 · NYJ pass defense #24/32 · 154 offense / 165 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -4
Model total
51
80% range (BUF margin)
-10.8 to +23.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32NYJ pass defense#24/32
  • BUF run game#1/32NYJ run defense#14/32
  • NYJ passing attack#16/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • NYJ run game#18/32BUF run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

BUFBuffalo Bills