2026 Week 2 · Final
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, final 30–33
Pregame first read
KC pass defense has the stronger league profile.
IND passing attack #26/32 · KC pass defense #8/32 · 168 offense / 163 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -4
- Model total
- 44.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -11.0 to +23.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingPatrick MahomesKC382 pass yds
- RushingKenneth Walker IIIKC117 rush yds
- ReceivingTravis KelceKC101 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#31/32IND pass defense#26/32
- KC run game#10/32IND run defense#23/32
- IND passing attack#26/32KC pass defense#8/32
- IND run game#19/32KC run defense#5/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
INDIndianapolis Colts
Not enough recorded games yet.
KCKansas City Chiefs
Not enough recorded games yet.