AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 3 · Final

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, final 17–19

HOUHOUHouston Texans17INDINDIndianapolis Colts19

Pregame first read

HOU run game has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #17/32 · IND run defense #28/32 · 135 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -6.5
Model total
51
80% range (IND margin)
-21.6 to +12.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#21/32HOU pass defense#11/32
  • IND run game#7/32HOU run defense#2/32
  • HOU passing attack#23/32IND pass defense#28/32
  • HOU run game#17/32IND run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

INDIndianapolis Colts