AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 3 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, final 24–10

KCKCKansas City Chiefs24MIAMIAMiami Dolphins10

Pregame first read

KC run game has the stronger league profile.

KC run game #4/32 · MIA run defense #26/32 · 121 offense / 133 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
KC -3.5
Model total
42.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-18.2 to +16.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#19/32KC pass defense#12/32
  • MIA run game#28/32KC run defense#13/32
  • KC passing attack#27/32MIA pass defense#31/32
  • KC run game#4/32MIA run defense#26/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

MIAMiami Dolphins