AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 3 · Final

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills, final 16–24

LACLACLos Angeles Chargers16BUFBUFBuffalo Bills24

Pregame first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #1/32 · LAC pass defense #18/32 · 174 offense / 159 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -5
Model total
44.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-9.8 to +24.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#1/32LAC pass defense#18/32
  • BUF run game#2/32LAC run defense#7/32
  • LAC passing attack#32/32BUF pass defense#21/32
  • LAC run game#29/32BUF run defense#17/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LACLos Angeles Chargers

BUFBuffalo Bills