AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 3 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 23–16

MINMINMinnesota Vikings23TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers16

Pregame first read

MIN pass defense has the stronger league profile.

TB passing attack #18/32 · MIN pass defense #1/32 · 168 offense / 151 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -5
Model total
39
80% range (TB margin)
-20.0 to +14.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#18/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • TB run game#9/32MIN run defense#1/32
  • MIN passing attack#25/32TB pass defense#22/32
  • MIN run game#13/32TB run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers