AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 3 · Final

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 6–35

NENENew England Patriots6JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars35

Pregame first read

JAX pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #30/32 · JAX pass defense #8/32 · 169 offense / 161 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -1.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (JAX margin)
-13.3 to +21.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#5/32NE pass defense#2/32
  • JAX run game#11/32NE run defense#8/32
  • NE passing attack#30/32JAX pass defense#8/32
  • NE run game#18/32JAX run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

JAXJacksonville Jaguars