2026 Week 4 · Final
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, final 45–24
Pregame first read
NO pass defense has the stronger league profile.
ATL passing attack #30/32 · NO pass defense #13/32 · 142 offense / 190 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NO -4
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (NO margin)
- -10.7 to +23.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingTyler ShoughNO286 pass yds
- RushingBijan RobinsonATL145 rush yds
- ReceivingChris OlaveNO116 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NO passing attack#16/32ATL pass defense#9/32
- NO run game#7/32ATL run defense#4/32
- ATL passing attack#30/32NO pass defense#13/32
- ATL run game#16/32NO run defense#9/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
ATLAtlanta Falcons
- Cooper RushQB · 2 games115pass yds/g
- Bijan RobinsonRB · 3 games116rush yds/g
- Drake LondonWR · 3 games91.3rec yds/g
- Austin HooperTE · 2 games15.5rec yds/g
NONew Orleans Saints
- Tyler ShoughQB · 3 games306pass yds/g
- Travis EtienneRB · 3 games42.7rush yds/g
- Chris OlaveWR · 3 games125rec yds/g
- Juwan JohnsonTE · 3 games57.7rec yds/g