AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans, final 34–30

DALDALDallas Cowboys34HOUHOUHouston Texans30

Pregame first read

HOU run game has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #21/32 · DAL run defense #28/32 · 124 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -3
Model total
51
80% range (HOU margin)
-11.9 to +22.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#25/32DAL pass defense#29/32
  • HOU run game#21/32DAL run defense#28/32
  • DAL passing attack#6/32HOU pass defense#5/32
  • DAL run game#7/32HOU run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DALDallas Cowboys

HOUHouston Texans