AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers, final 14–24

DENDENDenver Broncos14SFSFSan Francisco 49ers24

Pregame first read

SF run game has the stronger league profile.

SF run game #16/32 · DEN run defense #32/32 · 126 offense / 153 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
SF -2
Model total
45.5
80% range (SF margin)
-12.8 to +21.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • SF passing attack#2/32DEN pass defense#9/32
  • SF run game#16/32DEN run defense#32/32
  • DEN passing attack#22/32SF pass defense#18/32
  • DEN run game#19/32SF run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DENDenver Broncos

SFSan Francisco 49ers