AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 17–14

GBGBGreen Bay Packers17TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers14

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

GB run game #31/32 · TB run defense #3/32 · 105 offense / 111 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -3.5
Model total
46
80% range (TB margin)
-11.3 to +23.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#24/32GB pass defense#26/32
  • TB run game#20/32GB run defense#13/32
  • GB passing attack#18/32TB pass defense#19/32
  • GB run game#31/32TB run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

GBGreen Bay Packers

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers