AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders, final 30–13

INDINDIndianapolis Colts30WASWASWashington Commanders13

Pregame first read

WAS passing attack has the stronger league profile.

WAS passing attack #10/32 · IND pass defense #23/32 · 149 offense / 175 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
WAS -1.5
Model total
51.5
80% range (WAS margin)
-13.5 to +20.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • WAS passing attack#10/32IND pass defense#23/32
  • WAS run game#18/32IND run defense#30/32
  • IND passing attack#26/32WAS pass defense#25/32
  • IND run game#8/32WAS run defense#20/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

WASWashington Commanders