2026 Week 4 · Final
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, final 30–27
Pregame first read
KC run defense has the stronger league profile.
LV run game #32/32 · KC run defense #7/32 · 137 offense / 140 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -1.5
- Model total
- 38.5
- 80% range (LV margin)
- -16.6 to +17.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingKirk CousinsLV365 pass yds
- RushingKenneth Walker IIIKC177 rush yds
- ReceivingTyquan ThorntonKC111 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LV passing attack#20/32KC pass defense#3/32
- LV run game#32/32KC run defense#7/32
- KC passing attack#19/32LV pass defense#2/32
- KC run game#6/32LV run defense#8/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 3 games271pass yds/g
- Kenneth Walker IIIRB · 3 games120rush yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 3 games77rec yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games63.3rec yds/g
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Kirk CousinsQB · 3 games220pass yds/g
- Ashton JeantyRB · 3 games68.7rush yds/g
- Tre TuckerWR · 3 games63rec yds/g
- Michael MayerTE · 3 games29rec yds/g