AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, final 10–15

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins10MINMINMinnesota Vikings15

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #27/32 · MIN run defense #1/32 · 131 offense / 137 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -11.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (MIN margin)
-3.3 to +31.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#27/32MIA pass defense#30/32
  • MIN run game#23/32MIA run defense#22/32
  • MIA passing attack#21/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • MIA run game#27/32MIN run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

MINMinnesota Vikings