AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, final 29–26

NENENew England Patriots29BUFBUFBuffalo Bills26

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #2/32 · NE run defense #18/32 · 145 offense / 130 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -1.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-13.2 to +21.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#5/32NE pass defense#6/32
  • BUF run game#2/32NE run defense#18/32
  • NE passing attack#32/32BUF pass defense#22/32
  • NE run game#11/32BUF run defense#23/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

BUFBuffalo Bills